12 November 2026
Retailers are anticipating a flurry of spending as the peak season shifts into gear. Retail NZ, the peak body representing the retail sector, says shoppers held back in October as rising fuel prices took a bigger share of household budgets and many waited for Black Friday deals. The latest Electronic Card Transaction data from Stats NZ shows core retail card spending fell 0.8% compared with October last year.
Figures released today show actual total retail card spending was slightly up (0.3%) on last year, but Kiwis spent $77 million more on fuel in October compared to last year, up 15.9%.
“Fuel prices were at record levels in October, around $3.60 a litre for unleaded 91, and this is eating into household budgets,” says Retail NZ Chief Executive Carolyn Young. “We also had an extra Saturday in October compared to last year, so the figures may be even weaker than they appear.”
Spending fell across most of retail. Durables spending was down 2.4%, apparel down 3.2% and hospitality down 4.4%. Consumables was the only core category to grow, up 2.2%, as households continued to prioritise essentials.
“The fall in durables tells us many people are putting off bigger purchases. With Black Friday now dominating November promotions, retailers have told me recently that customers are not buying unless a product is on sale. Shoppers know that if they hold out, they’re likely to pay less if they purchase in November” Ms Young says. “One in three retailers tell us they’re putting more into their promotions this year, hoping to attract savvy shoppers looking for bargains.”
The NZ dollar continued to weaken in October, and a hike of the OCR rate is expected in December. Election campaigning was also ramping up, potentially adding to uncertainty in the market. “Retailers don’t seem to be able to get a break,” says MS Young. “We need the incoming Government to get to grips with rising fuel and power costs as this is increasing the cost of doing business and impacting the cost of living for consumers.”
Despite this, three quarters of Retail NZ members are confident trading will be good heading into the holiday season, and November and December remain crucial months for a sector under pressure.
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