15 July 2026
The latest electronic card transaction data from Stats NZ will not be the boost that some retailers will have hoped for, says Retail NZ Chief Executive, Carolyn Young.
Figures show actual core retail spending last month was flat, with just a 0.4% lift compared to June 2025. That’s despite there being a drop in fuel prices last month and signs that conflict in the Middle East was starting to ease.
It follows strong May spending data, where actual core retail spending increased 2.8% year-on-year.
“Retailers will have been hoping to see another rise in spending for June, with the global uncertainty looking like it was easing somewhat,” Carolyn Young says.
“But other than an uptick in grocery spending, with a 2% rise in consumables, shoppers continued to cut back despite those positive economic signs. Apparel again took another blow, with spending down 4.2% compared to June last year – its fourth straight monthly decrease; even hospitality took a 1.4% tumble despite seeing a reasonable lift in spending in May.”
Ms Young says while the one positive for core retail was an increase in grocery spending, it was still below the rate of inflation.
“Over the last week or two we have seen those global tensions erupt again with the re-closing of the Strait of Hormuz, so retailers will be bracing for shoppers to cut back on spending further, especially with Westpac’s latest consumer sentiment index showing a continuation of deep pessimism.”
NZIER’s June quarter survey of business opinion out this week found 41% of firms raised their prices in the June quarter, the highest reading since September 2023, while 54% said they intend to raise their prices in the September quarter.
Ms Young says while retailers are being hit with rising costs in all directions, with spending so subdued, they may be thinking again about whether to raise prices.
“Retailers always absorb costs where they can, as they’re aware the high cost-of-living has been hitting households hard. While they need to ensure they are covering their costs, they also need to be able to attract customers into their stores. It’s a tough balance to strike when times are tough like this,” Ms Young says.
However, the Reserve Bank has signaled they expect to see economic growth return in the September quarter, something Ms Young says retailers will take some comfort from.
For further information or to set up an interview please contact Carolyn Young on 021 449 452
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