What’s happening in the retail sector?
Find out with Retail Radar, our monthly research report. It’s useful for:
- Getting a snapshot of the sentiment of Kiwi retailers.
- Identifying future expectations of sales, inflation, and employment intentions.
Retail Radar report on the fourth quarter of 2022:
Mixed results in Christmas quarter
The peak Christmas season produced mixed results for retailers, with a mostly pessimistic outlook for 2023. Inflationary pressures continue and will likely translate into further price increases in 2023.
30 per cent of respondents indicated that they are not confident their businesses will survive the next 12 months. While this is a slight improvement from previous quarters, it does demonstrate the seriousness of challenges faced by the sector.
Retail Radar report on the third quarter of 2022:
Minor improvements in retail outlook but inflationary pressures remain.
While retail sector performance has not been strong through winter, we have recorded minor improvements in the proportion of businesses hitting their sales targets, and a minor improvement in confidence levels. However, significant cost pressures remain and we are forecasting an average price rise of five per cent in the next quarter, on top of six per cent in the period ended 30 September.
30 per cent of retailers are not sure, or not confident if their business will survive the next 12 months. While this is a slight improvement on the previous quarter, a blanket of economic uncertainty remains.
Retail Radar report on the second quarter of 2022:
Inflationary pressures intensify.
Prices continued to increase through the last quarter, with an average price increase of six per cent reported, with a similar outlook for the next quarter. Rising operational costs, staff shortages, and a lack of foot traffic are having a significant impact on retailers.
The Retail NZ Sales Index has recorded a 16 per cent increase in average daily sales per site compared to the same quarter last year. This performance partly reflects the fact Auckland was recovering from lockdown in the second quarter of last year, and inflationary impacts. However, increased sales mask increased costs faced by many retailers over the past quarter.
Retail Radar report on the first quarter of 2022:
Retailer confidence slumps while inflationary pressures remain.
The widespread emergence of Omicron in the community has seen many retailers miss quarterly targets, as dissatisfaction with the Government’s response to COVID-19 remains steady. On average retailers expect prices to rise by more than seven per cent on average over the next three months.
The Retail NZ sales index recorded a slow start to 2022, the widespread emergence of Omicron in the community being a key factor. In total, spending was up four per cent for the quarter, compared to a decline of 17 per cent from the previous quarter. While sales are up on average, some stores are facing substantial declines. Additionally, costs are also increasing at a rapid rate, sometimes outstripping any gains in sales.
We welcome all feedback on Retail Radar – if you have any comments or questions please email: [email protected].
