03 November 2026
Retail NZ has found retailers are feeling more confident about the next 12 months than they have all year, despite the challenges facing the sector.
The latest Retail Radar report for Q3 2026, which canvasses the views of Retail NZ’s membership, found 73.7% of retailers are confident their business will survive the next 12 months – well above the average confidence level recorded across the previous two years.
“We’re seeing strong confidence levels among retailers despite the continued pressures from high fuel prices, inflation and unemployment, a weak Kiwi dollar, muted consumer spending, and rising business costs,” Retail NZ Chief Executive, Carolyn Young, says.
“Our survey period ended before last week’s OCR review and the further drop in the dollar, but fuel prices were soaring to new record levels. Yet despite the challenging conditions, more than three-quarters of respondents say they expect to meet or exceed their targets in the final three months of the year.
“This tells us most retailers feel they have their settings right as they head into the festive trading season.”
Ms Young says while that doesn’t mean trading conditions are easy for retailers, there is a growing sense that businesses can weather the current environment and come out on the other side, with only 6.7% of retailers saying they were not confident about their ability to survive the next year.
The latest trading results might also help explain the shift in sentiment.
“Looking back at the last two years, an average of 60.7% of retailers reported missing their sales targets in each quarter – in Q3 2026, that fell to 53%,” Ms Young says.
Election priorities clear
With the General Election only days away, Retail NZ also asked retailers what they want the next Government to prioritise.
More than half of respondents (53.6%) said stabilising fuel prices should be a priority, reflecting the impact fuel costs have on both household budgets and business expenses. Retailers also highlighted concerns about frequent changes in government policy and regulation.
“The message to the next government from retailers is clear: reduce the cost of living, lower the cost of doing business, and provide greater certainty for businesses,” Ms Young says.
“Businesses make long-term decisions and every significant policy change comes with compliance costs, uncertainty and disruption.”
Taking action to reduce power prices, addressing high card payment fees and ensuring large offshore platforms such as Temu and Shein are held accountable for product safety obligations, rounded out retailers’ top 5 concerns.
“Retailers are telling us they want a fairer and more predictable operating environment, that sets them – and the economy – up for success.”
For further information or to set up an interview, please contact Carolyn Young on 021 449 452
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